Supercomputer boosts Arsenal’s chances of Premier League glory after north London derby victory – but whose title hopes plummeted to NOTHING after the mid-week fixtures?

Arsenal’s chances of lifting the Premier League trophy at the end of the season have been boosted by their north London derby win, new data from Opta’s supercomputer suggests.

The Gunners’ likelihood of winning the title has been increased to 13 per cent, a 4.6 per cent rise from the previous game week and a one per cent increase from the beginning of the season. In fine form, they have only conceded seven goals in their last 10 league matches, scoring 23 and winning seven matches.

Mikel Arteta’s side earnt three points on Wednesday night, after coming from behind to beat Spurs with a Leandro Trossard winner. This placed them back above Forest in the table and closed the gap with Liverpool to four points with one more match played. Arteta very much believes that his Arsenal side are in a title fight, calling his side ‘sensational’ and ‘consistent’.

Arsenal will hope to continue their excellent form and defensive record with trips to Wolves and Leicester in the following weeks. However, they will face tests against Manchester City at home and Nottingham Forest away in February. 

The start of March sees a challenging visit to Old Trafford, with Manchester United having knocked the Gunners out of the FA Cup on penalties on Sunday. In addition to this set back, they have also suffered recent injury blows to key players Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus. 

While Arteta hopes that Saka will be back in the squad by late February, Jesus will be out for the remainder of the campaign after injuring the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

Arsenal have increased their chances at winning the Premier League on the heels of victory in the north London derby

Mikel Arteta is optimisitc about his team’s chances of chasing down league leaders Liverpool

Arne Slot’s side were held to a draw against Nottingham Forest, cutting the gap to four points

Plus, the Gunners will be expecting Kai Havertz’s form in goal to approve if they want to make a serious title charge. On the other hand, their defence has been almost faultless this season and is the best in the division thanks to the solidity of Gabriel and William Saliba at the back. They can also be cheered by having bounced back well when necessary, as their win against Spurs can attest. 

Arne Slot’s Liverpool side were given a 5.1 per cent chance of Premier League glory in August by Opta, but are the runaway leaders now, the supercomputer giving the Reds an 86.5 per cent chance of winning the title – only a slight reduction from 87.4 per cent at the start of January.

Liverpool have the best run statistically of the top three – the average league position of teams they face in the next five games is as low as 14th, and includes hosting Ipswich and Wolves – but they could yet encounter a banana skin with a trip to Goodison Park for the rearranged Merseyside derby versus Everton.

The top two of the Premier Leagues are also in the top three of the Champions League table, with Arsenal and Liverpool on the verge of qualifying for the round of 16, so fixture congestion could prove to be a test.

Slot has had to prepare for a crippling eight fixtures in January, followed by an extra seven in February and more to come in March. Liverpool will have their eyes on success across all four competitions this season, with a view to not only Premier League glory, but overturning a one-goal deficit at Anfield against Spurs in their Carabao Cup semi-final second leg.

Despite Forest sitting in third and winning a promising 19 points from the last 21 in the Premier League – and conceding just four goals in this run – Opta have given Nuno’s team a 0.1 per cent chance of making history with a title win. 

Instead, by their metric, the most likely position Forest will finish is fifth. But should they hope to achieve a miracle, they’re in the best position to do so. 

Chris Wood fired in the opener – and his 12th league goal of the season – against Liverpool in their midweek draw, sending the City Ground into bedlam, and Wood continues to prove himself as a key member of Nuno’s squad. 

Forest’s star man Chris Wood again found the back of the net against the title contenders

Liverpool still have the strongest chance of claiming their second Premier League title in May

Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White are also pivotal assets in Forest’s attack alongside Wood. And yet despite this attacking prowess, the success in Nottingham this season has been the defence. Forest have kept nine clean sheets this season,  with Matz Sels making 63 league saves and ably assisted by a powerful back four that includes Ola Aina and Nikola Milenkovic.

Slot himself has been favorable of Forest’s chances, claiming that they are still within a chance of pipping Liverpool to the title.

‘I have always said you can judge the table best halfway through the season and that moment is there now so if Forest is up there with us’, said the Liverpool manager when asked about their title hopes ahead of their draw at Anfield. 

With Manchester City and Chelsea both drawing 2-2 on Tuesday, their title hopes have diminished, with City being given a 0.2 per cent chance of winning the Premier League, plummeting from 82.2 per cent before a game had even been played. 

Chelsea have been given no chance of title success with their percentage chances dropping from 0.3 per cent at the start of 2025 to zero per cent after their draw at home to Bournemouth. Away from the top flight, Maresca’s men are the big favorites to win the Europa Conference League for the first time, but the Blues will have to endure seven more games if they want to lift the trophy, further filling up their schedule for the next few months. 

Man City have won just three of their last 10 league matches and squandered a 2-0 lead against Brentford in midweek

Chelsea have all but torpedoed their slim chances of topping the table after a five-game winless run this winter

But Newcastle are in fine form as they look to keep pace with the top four and continue to challenge in the Carabao Cup 

Opta’s supercomputer has predicted the outcome of the top flight based on midweek results

Newcastle extended their winning streak in all competitions to 10 games with a 3-0 victory over the Wolves, and boosting their chances of winning the title with a late charge to 0.2 per cent. 

The Tyneside club are in the finest form in the division, with their top scorer Alexander Isak netting 15 Premier League goals from a 12.54xG, making him the most clinical finisher in the league and extending his run of scoring in consecutive league games to eight.

The Magpies also have a favorable run of fixtures with Bournemouth and Fulham visiting St James’ Park in January, and a trip to St Mary’s to face rock bottom Southampton thereafter. 

Eddie Howe will be hopeful his team can continue their league form with no European competition to worry about this season, and a potential trip to Wembley in the offing in March if they keep hold of their lead against Arsenal in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg.