We need to talk about fouls

Since the recent rise to prominence of set-piece coaches in football, we have grown accustomed to scrutinising a dead-ball situation to within an inch of its life.

Professional dance troupes would be proud to pull off some of the choreographed routines implemented by Premier League clubs but, from the defending team’s perspective, the situation itself is often entirely avoidable.

Conceding a corner can result from opposition dominance, pinning a defence back until they are forced to clear the ball behind and try to regroup. However, conceding a free kick in your defensive third is usually a result of ill-discipline, fatigue or a rush of blood to the head.

These innocuous/daft challenges can cost you points, as we saw this week during Bournemouth’s trip to Chelsea. Ryan Christie’s tired lunge on Joao Felix on the edge of the penalty area deep into second-half stoppage time gave Reece James the chance to step up and convert the subsequent free kick, snatching a 2-2 draw.

The question is, which teams have been the biggest offenders this season? Should we chastise those who lose their defensive cool in the crucial moment or credit attacking players more with their intelligence to “win” a free kick?

Let’s talk about fouls.

Ryan Christie conceded a crucial foul against Chelsea in midweek (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)

First, mapping the locations of each side’s fouls this season (all stats in this article are up to but not including the current round of fixtures) does provide a decent indication of their defensive approach.

While Manchester City’s transitional weaknesses have been exposed more often this season, an aggressive, counter-pressing game is still often attempted by Pep Guardiola’s side — along with Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea and Newcastle United in particular.

By contrast, note the above-average volume of fouls conceded by Manchester United, Leicester City, Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers in their defensive thirds. It may speak to some of the desperation those four sides have been playing with at certain points in the season, with a lack of defensive structure resulting in all of them changing their manager/head coach before its halfway stage.

This propensity to dive into a challenge is supported by the numbers when looking at the volume of fouls committed in a team’s defensive third per 1,000 opposition touches. Even after accounting for the opportunity to stick a foot in, the above four sides rank highest for fouls conceded by this measure. While some of these might be necessary to stop a threatening attack, a lot are likely to be petulant or avoidable.

It is little coincidence that Wolves and Manchester United have also struggled so much when defending set pieces this season. Not only are they hot-headed in inviting pressure onto themselves from fouls in their defensive third, but they also have the two poorest records when dealing with the subsequent dead-ball situation.

Accounting for the opportunity to defend, Wolves’ rate of 8.3 goals per 100 set pieces conceded is the most in the Premier League, ahead of Manchester United’s second-placed 7.3 — pointing to an element of chaos in the defensive third that those clubs’ new managers, Vitor Pereira and Ruben Amorim, have been tasked with addressing.

It will surprise nobody to know that the more fouls you commit in your defensive third, the more set-piece goals you concede from the resulting free kicks.

If certain sides are not strong in defending those dead-ball situations, the message is clear — don’t allow them to occur in the first place.

GO DEEPER

Not all fouls are committed equally – separating the clumsy from the clever

At the other end of things, Liverpool, Brentford, Brighton and Manchester City are less likely to overcommit within their own defensive third, often allowing the sequence to play out and run its course organically.

This could be interpreted as a negative, passive approach but really, it is just simple maths.

The average Premier League team have 57 sequences per match that start in the attacking half. Less than two per cent of those end in them scoring a goal. Committing a foul in a dangerous area can significantly increase the chances of conceding a shot from the subsequent free kick. Some teams are leaning on the numbers in these situations by not risking a threatening opportunity.

Despite Manchester City’s defensive woes this season, it has largely been further up the pitch where they have been most vulnerable. Situations like the one below are a good example of the champions’ defence being disciplined when the opposition break beyond their midfield.

In last month’s home game against Everton, centre-back Nathan Ake tracks Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s dart into the right channel. He matches the striker’s run, stays on his feet while gently engaging in contact (see frame two below), and ushers Calvert-Lewin away from goal.

The move comes to nothing as Ake blocks the subsequent attempt at a pass through his legs, allowing City to regroup.

A similar approach can be seen from Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke, whose cultured defensive approach will often see him getting touch-tight on whoever he’s marking without overcommitting to his task.

Like here, in the home match against Brentford last month, where a channel ball to Kevin Schade is tracked into the corner by the Netherlands international. As with countryman Ake above, Van Hecke matches the run, holds his nerve, and shepherds Schade to the touchline before nipping in to put the ball out for a throw.

How often do you typically see a similar sequence result in a defending player making a needless foul in the corner?

For Liverpool, the imperious Virgil van Dijk (another Dutchman!) is the poster boy for composed defending in his own third, and it is clear his calm-as-you-like presence has transferred to his team-mates.

Van Dijk’s fellow centre-back Ibrahima Konate was the one tasked with swatting an opposition attack aside against Manchester United a couple of weeks ago, when Rasmus Hojlund received the ball in the left channel.

Konate matches the run, forces Hojlund away from the goal without nibbling, and passes his man onto Ryan Gravenberch, who was similarly unwilling to take the bait of a needless foul — raising his hands to signify the lack of contact to referee Michael Oliver (see frame three in the next GIF).

From an initially promising attacking situation for their opponents, Liverpool’s defence ensured that any danger was averted without even risking a foul by making a challenge.

Liverpool’s lack of defensive engagement is an interesting topic in light of recent seasons, with a 2022 analysis showing Van Dijk and his Anfield colleagues actively refusing to block low-value shots from distance to give their goalkeeper a clearer line of sight to save the incoming ball.

Is it a coincidence that data-led sides Liverpool, Brentford, Brighton, and City are among the bottom four for their inclination to concede fouls in their defensive third? Maybe, but it seems too good to be true.

GO DEEPER

Active vs passive centre-backs: What the data tells us about different roles

Quantifying this decision-making is not new.

StatsBomb (now Hudl Statsbomb) ran the numbers on a similar topic nearly a decade ago, comparing the expected value of different situations in a defensive moment depending on whether a player is aggressive or conservative in their action.

While some defenders might have an action bias to show their commitment, there is just as much beauty in the absence of an action altogether — with quick calculations required to recognise the costs and benefits of either course.

(Stu Forster/Getty Images)

From an attacking perspective, is there a skill to earning a foul?

Not in terms of diving, but few things satisfy an English crowd more than seeing their centre-forward scrapping away in a duel, winning a free kick, and dragging their team up the pitch as a consequence.

Naturally, the players who get fouled the most are those given the greatest creative responsibility in a team, with Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, Matheus Cunha of Wolves (both 12), Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo, Bukayo Saka of Arsenal (both 13) and Everton’s Iliman Ndiaye (15) being the five most-fouled Premier League players inside their attacking third this season.

While players don’t base their performances on getting fouled, fleet-footed, dribbly forwards know they are helping their team if they get brought down in a potentially lucrative area of the pitch.

Palmer, left, and Saka (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

The man most associated with winning his side a free kick is Manchester City’s Jack Grealish, who holds the record for the most fouls drawn in a single season (167, with previous club Aston Villa in 2019-20).

“If you’re getting fouled here (in the central third of the opposition half) then it’s fine, because it can be useful for the team,” Grealish told City’s YouTube channel in 2023. “But if we are in our own half, you want to try to stay on your feet.”

With Grealish’s minutes being limited this season, it is summer signing Savinho who has won the most fouls for City in the attacking third. After a difficult start to life in English football following his transfer from French club Troyes, the 20-year-old Brazilian has flourished since being moved to the left flank, but his purposeful running from the right caused chaos for defences — earning City two penalties in near-identical fashion after nicking the ball away from an overcommitted full-back.

Only Bournemouth’s Evanilson (five) has won more Premier League penalties this season, a metric which should be viewed as a measure of creativity in a player’s attacking contribution.

However, could we broaden the scope of The Athletic’s recent analysis by going further up the sequence chain?

If winning a penalty should add to a player’s expected assists (xA) contribution, crediting the fouled player with the subsequent expected goal (xG) value of a shot following a set piece can cast the net wider on a player’s attacking involvement.

GO DEEPER

Should we credit winning penalties as a measure of creativity?

Evanilson remains top of the list by this measure, owing to that high volume of penalties won, but Saka jumps up it by the sheer volume of fouls on him in the attacking half — adding 1.9 adjusted xA to his tally, the fifth-most in the league.

Particularly with the threat Arsenal pose from set pieces, the currently injured Saka is missed beyond his attacking actions on the ball. Being brought down by an opponent still contributes to a threatening situation for your team.

Given that there are 22.5 fouls in the average Premier League game, we frequently filter out these actions as a necessary evil to the overall flow of a match. Often, it gives us a chance to check our phones or watch a slow-motion replay of the foul at hand.

It might not sound glamorous, but fouls can change games with the attacking opportunities they provide to the opponent in dangerous areas.

The best way to stop those pesky set-piece specialists? Cut their access off at the source by staying on your feet.

(Top photo: Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)